In 2025, Revenue Management leaders met to discuss the reality of uncertainty in a context where travel patterns are changing rapidly and, in many cases, unpredictably. Increased cancellations, shorter booking windows, and external policies with a direct impact on demand are shaping a new landscape.
The volatility of tourism demand has ceased to be an exception and has become a structural characteristic of the sector, says Laura Walters, Area Director of Revenue Management at Dragonfly Strategists. Changes in consumer behavior, macroeconomic uncertainties, and currency fluctuations have created an environment in which predictability has decreased and agility has become a competitive differentiator.
Recent research by the UNWTO (World Tourism Organization) indicates that, although global travel flows recovered to approximately 92% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024, the composition of that demand has changed. There are now fewer long-haul trips and a higher volume of short- and medium-haul trips, with bookings being made increasingly closer to the travel date.
According to Amadeus Travel Pulse, the average booking window for international leisure travel fell between 18 and 32 months, depending on the source market. This means planning has been shortened, and hotels need to respond in real time, not quarterly.
Main movements observed:
- Some traditional source markets are showing a decline, while regional destinations are gaining prominence.
Example: Traditional international demand is less reliable. Some participants reported declines of up to 40% in demand from Canada, in addition to setbacks from China, Mexico, and Brazil. - Domestic travel also exhibits volatility: weather disruptions, political instability, and forecasting errors result in shorter booking windows.
- The group and government segments continue to be sensitive to budget cuts and contract revisions, increasing the risk of block cancellations.
Given this scenario, models based on the behavior of the last 3 to 5 years no longer explain the present. Forecast structures must be dynamic and adjusted weekly.
Demand intelligence needs to operate in real time. Market insights tools (such as TravelClick Demand360, STR, and other local sources) are no longer just supporting data; they are becoming the foundation for decision-making.
Agility is no longer just operational; it's become strategic. The competitive advantage lies in changing before the market changes.
Currently, the focus is shifting towards perceived value instead of a discount. Guests are more price-sensitive but unwilling to compromise on the experience. This is reflected in the report. EY Future Travel 2024, which indicates that “Value-Driven Travel” outperforms “budget travel”.
A repositioning of channels is also necessary, reviewing the mix between direct sales, OTAs, and intermediaries. There is a growing demand for pricing transparency and tangible benefits in direct bookings.
Conclusion
The current environment requires not only anticipating demand, but also listening and reacting continuously.
Competitive advantage shifts from "who knows how to plan" to "who knows how to adapt.".
Today, the forecast is movement, not a photograph.


